1. David Cooper, Raising the Federal Minimum Wage to $15 by 2024 Would Lift Pay for Nearly 40 Million Workers, Economic Policy Institute, February 2019.

2. David Cooper, Zane Mokhiber, and Ben Zipperer, Minimum Wage Simulation Model Technical Methodology, February 2019.

3. New Mexico and Nevada also enacted state minimum wage increases to $12, though these changes do not meaningfully affect our estimates.

4. Congressional Budget Office, The Effects on Employment and Family Income of Increasing the Federal Minimum Wage, July 2019; Ben Zipperer, “Low-wage Workers Will See Huge Gains from Minimum Wage Hike, CBO Finds,” Working Economics (Economic Policy Institute blog), July 9, 2019.

5. EPI’s simulation assumes baseline hourly wage growth of CBO’s projection for CPI + 0.5 percent, equaling an average of 2.9 percent annually from 2018 to 2025.

6. Economic Policy Institute, “Wages by Percentile,” State of Working America Data Library, last updated February 19, 2019.

7. Author’s calculations using data from Economic Policy Institute, “Wages by Percentile,” State of Working America Data Library, last updated February 19, 2019.

Table 1

Summary of minimum wage increases under the Raise the Wage Act of 2019, and number of workers affected by the increases, 2019–2025

Date Minimum wage Increase Tipped minimum wage Tipped minimum increase Total estimated U.S. workforce (thousands) Directly affected (thousands) Indirectly affected (thousands) Total affected (thousands) Affected workers’ share of U.S. workforce
July 2019 $7.25 2.13
October 2019 $8.40 $1.15 $3.55 $1.42 145,357 2,152 4,216 6,368 4.4%
October 2020 $9.50 $1.10 $5.00 $1.45 146,148 5,013 7,008 12,021 8.2%
October 2021 $10.60 $1.10 $6.45 $1.45 146,963 8,034 8,578 16,612 11.3%
October 2022 $11.70 $1.10 $7.90 $1.45 147,801 13,071 7,233 20,303 13.7%
October 2023 $12.80 $1.10 $9.35 $1.45 148,665 15,487 9,273 24,760 16.7%
October 2024 $13.90 $1.10 $10.80 $1.45 149,554 19,350 11,210 30,560 20.4%
October 2025 $15.00 $1.10 $12.25 $1.45 150,469 23,237 10,222 33,459 22.2%

Notes: Values reflect the result of the proposed change in the federal minimum wage. Wage changes resulting from scheduled state and local minimum wage laws are accounted for by EPI’s Minimum Wage Simulation Model. Totals may not sum due to rounding. Shares calculated from unrounded values. Directly affected workers will see their wages rise as the new minimum wage rate exceeds their existing hourly pay. Indirectly affected workers have a wage rate just above the new minimum wage (between the new minimum wage and 115 percent of the new minimum). They will receive a raise as employer pay scales are adjusted upward to reflect the new minimum wage. Wage increase totals are cumulative of all preceding steps.

Source:?Economic Policy Institute Minimum Wage Simulation Model using data from the Census Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Congressional Budget Office. See David Cooper, Zane Mokhiber, and Ben Zipperer, Minimum Wage Simulation Model Technical Methodology, February 2019.

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Table 2

Wage impacts of increasing the minimum wage under the Raise the Wage Act of 2019, 2019–2025 (2018$)

Directly affected workers All (directly & indirectly) affected workers
Date Minimum wage (nominal $) Minimum wage (2018$) Tipped minimum wage (nominal $) Tipped minimum wage (2018$) Total wage increase (thousands) Change in avg. hourly wage Change in avg. annual income (year-round workers) Real percent change in avg. annual earnings Total wage increase (thousands) Change in avg. hourly wage Change in avg. annual income (year-round workers) Real percent change in avg. annual earnings
July 2019 $7.25 $7.08 $2.13 $2.08
October 2019 $8.40 $8.21 $3.55 $3.47 $2,308,932 $0.77 $1,070 10.4% $4,386,358 $0.46 $690 4.8%
October 2020 $9.50 $9.06 $5.00 $4.77 $7,164,773 $1.00 $1,430 11.7% $10,431,478 $0.58 $870 5.5%
October 2021 $10.60 $9.86 $6.45 $6.00 $14,549,451 $1.23 $1,810 13.4% $19,355,468 $0.77 $1,170 7.0%
October 2022 $11.70 $10.62 $7.90 $7.17 $26,848,613 $1.36 $2,050 13.4% $32,310,715 $1.04 $1,590 9.0%
October 2023 $12.80 $11.34 $9.35 $8.28 $42,106,884 $1.77 $2,720 16.9% $49,365,973 $1.28 $1,990 10.6%
October 2024 $13.90 $12.03 $10.80 $9.34 $61,250,277 $2.01 $3,170 18.3% $69,762,064 $1.44 $2,280 11.4%
October 2025 $15.00 $12.68 $12.25 $10.35 $83,120,275 $2.23 $3,580 19.3% $92,402,765 $1.71 $2,760 13.3%

Notes: Values reflect the result of the proposed change in the federal minimum wage. Wage changes resulting from scheduled state and local minimum wage laws are accounted for by EPI's Minimum Wage Simulation Model. Totals may not sum due to rounding. Shares calculated from unrounded values. Directly affected workers will see their wages rise as the new minimum wage rate will exceed their current hourly pay. Indirectly affected workers have a wage rate just above the new minimum wage (between the new minimum wage and 115 percent of the new minimum). They will receive a raise as employer pay scales are adjusted upward to reflect the new minimum wage. Wage increase totals are cumulative of all preceding steps.

Source:?Economic Policy Institute Minimum Wage Simulation Model using data from the Census Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Congressional Budget Office. See David Cooper, Zane Mokhiber, and Ben Zipperer, Minimum Wage Simulation Model Technical Methodology, February 2019. Dollar values adjusted by projections for CPI-U in CBO 2018.

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Table 3

Demographic characteristics of workers affected by increasing the federal minimum wage to $15 by 2025

 

Group Total estimated workforce (thousands) Directly affected (thousands) Share of total directly affected Indirectly affected (thousands) Share of total indirectly affected Total affected (thousands) Share of total? affected Group’s share of total affected
All workers 150,469 23,237 15.4% 10,222 6.8% 33,459 22.2% 100.0%
Gender
Women 72,988 13,656 18.7% 5,851 8.0% 19,508 26.7% 58.3%
Men 77,481 9,581 12.4% 4,370 5.6% 13,951 18.0% 41.7%
Age
Age 19 or younger 5,258 2,872 54.6% 486 9.2% 3,358 63.9% 10.0%
Age 20 or older 145,211 20,366 14.0% 9,736 6.7% 30,102 20.7% 90.0%
Ages 16–24 20,500 9,053 44.2% 2,322 11.3% 11,375 55.5% 34.0%
Ages 25–39 50,705 7,325 14.4% 3,824 7.5% 11,149 22.0% 33.3%
Ages 40–54 48,076 3,791 7.9% 2,423 5.0% 6,214 12.9% 18.6%
Age 55 or older 31,188 3,068 9.8% 1,653 5.3% 4,721 15.1% 14.1%
Race/ethnicity
White 89,040 11,631 13.1% 5,749 6.5% 17,380 19.5% 51.9%
Black 17,784 4,448 25.0% 1,267 7.1% 5,715 32.1% 17.1%
Hispanic 29,595 5,648 19.1% 2,405 8.1% 8,053 27.2% 24.1%
Asian or other race/ethnicity 14,051 1,511 10.8% 801 5.7% 2,312 16.5% 6.9%
Men of color 31,715 5,063 16.0% 2,153 6.8% 7,217 22.8% 21.6%
Women of color 29,714 6,543 22.0% 2,320 7.8% 8,863 29.8% 26.5%
Family status
Married parent 38,042 3,007 7.9% 1,826 4.8% 4,833 12.7% 14.4%
Single parent 13,940 3,233 23.2% 1,329 9.5% 4,562 32.7% 13.6%
Married, no children 38,588 3,245 8.4% 1,931 5.0% 5,175 13.4% 15.5%
Unmarried, no children 59,899 13,753 23.0% 5,137 8.6% 18,889 31.5% 56.5%
Usual work hours
Part time (<20 hours) 8,690 2,786 32.1% 821 9.4% 3,607 41.5% 10.8%
Mid time (20–34 hours) 22,353 7,768 34.8% 2,436 10.9% 10,204 45.7% 30.5%
Full time (35+ hours) 119,426 12,683 10.6% 6,965 5.8% 19,648 16.5% 58.7%
Educational attainment
Less than high school 15,314 5,201 34.0% 1,483 9.7% 6,684 43.6% 20.0%
High school 37,401 8,537 22.8% 3,715 9.9% 12,252 32.8% 36.6%
Some college, no degree 35,005 7,043 20.1% 3,090 8.8% 10,132 28.9% 30.3%
Associate degree 13,569 1,455 10.7% 919 6.8% 2,374 17.5% 7.1%
Bachelor’s degree or higher 49,181 1,002 2.0% 1,015 2.1% 2,017 4.1% 6.0%
Family income
Less than $25,000 20,317 8,712 42.9% 2,628 12.9% 11,340 55.8% 33.9%
$25,000–$49,999 30,681 5,783 18.9% 3,216 10.5% 8,999 29.3% 26.9%
$50,000–$74,999 27,946 3,585 12.8% 1,840 6.6% 5,424 19.4% 16.2%
$75,000–$99,999 21,875 2,111 9.6% 1,069 4.9% 3,180 14.5% 9.5%
$100,000–$149,999 26,859 1,978 7.4% 949 3.5% 2,927 10.9% 8.7%
$150,000 or more 22,791 1,069 4.7% 520 2.3% 1,589 7.0% 4.7%
Family income-to-poverty ratio
At or below the poverty line 10,421 5,071 48.7% 1,166 11.2% 6,237 59.8% 18.6%
101–200% of poverty line 21,924 7,047 32.1% 2,939 13.4% 9,986 45.5% 29.8%
201–400% of poverty line 47,296 6,856 14.5% 3,932 8.3% 10,788 22.8% 32.2%
401% or above 69,885 3,793 5.4% 2,104 3.0% 5,897 8.4% 17.6%
Poverty status not available 943 471 49.9% 81 8.6% 552 58.5% 1.6%
Industry
Agriculture, forestry, fishing, hunting 2,463 453 18.4% 151 6.1% 604 24.5% 1.8%
Construction 8,311 841 10.1% 482 5.8% 1,322 15.9% 4.0%
Manufacturing 16,562 1,694 10.2% 822 5.0% 2,516 15.2% 7.5%
Wholesale trade 4,101 437 10.7% 203 4.9% 640 15.6% 1.9%
Retail trade 17,702 5,046 28.5% 1,497 8.5% 6,542 37.0% 19.6%
Transportation, warehousing, utilities 7,834 639 8.2% 347 4.4% 985 12.6% 2.9%
Information 3,207 213 6.6% 105 3.3% 318 9.9% 1.0%
Finance, insurance, real estate 9,587 540 5.6% 324 3.4% 864 9.0% 2.6%
Professional, scientific, management, technical services 9,307 313 3.4% 170 1.8% 483 5.2% 1.4%
Administrative, support, and waste management 6,037 1,353 22.4% 494 8.2% 1,846 30.6% 5.5%
Education 14,746 1,438 9.7% 606 4.1% 2,044 13.9% 6.1%
Healthcare 21,591 3,265 15.1% 1,279 5.9% 4,544 21.0% 13.6%
Arts, entertainment, recreational services 3,048 782 25.7% 360 11.8% 1,142 37.5% 3.4%
Accommodation 1,827 600 32.8% 255 14.0% 855 46.8% 2.6%
Restaurants and food service 10,405 4,141 39.8% 2,087 20.1% 6,227 59.8% 18.6%
Other services 6,088 1,200 19.7% 852 14.0% 2,052 33.7% 6.1%
Public administration 7,652 283 3.7% 190 2.5% 473 6.2% 1.4%
Tipped occupations
Nontipped workers 146,034 21,948 15.0% 7,828 5.4% 29,776 20.4% 89.0%
Tipped workers 4,436 1,290 29.1% 2,394 54.0% 3,684 83.0% 11.0%
Sector
For-profit 114,498 20,079 17.5% 8,749 7.6% 28,828 25.2% 86.2%
Government 22,777 1,684 7.4% 815 3.6% 2,499 11.0% 7.5%
Nonprofit 13,194 1,474 11.2% 658 5.0% 2,133 16.2% 6.4%

Notes: Values reflect the population likely to be affected by the proposed change in the federal minimum wage. Wage changes resulting from scheduled state and local minimum wage laws are accounted for by EPI’s Minimum Wage Simulation Model. Totals may not sum due to rounding. Shares calculated from unrounded values. Directly affected workers will see their wages rise as the new minimum wage rate will exceed their current hourly pay. Indirectly affected workers have a wage rate just above the new minimum wage (between the new minimum wage and 115 percent of the new minimum). They will receive a raise as employer pay scales are adjusted upward to reflect the new minimum wage. The last two columns show what share of the workforce subgroup is affected, and that subgroup's share of all affected workers. So for example, it shows that?26.7% of working women are affected, and that working women constitute 58.3% of all affected workers.

Source:?Economic Policy Institute Minimum Wage Simulation Model using data from the Census Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Congressional Budget Office. See David Cooper, Zane Mokhiber, and Ben Zipperer, Minimum Wage Simulation Model Technical Methodology, February 2019.

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Table 4

Summary of impact of increasing the minimum wage to $15 by 2025 (in 2025), by state

State Total estimated state workforce (thousands) Directly affected (thousands) Share of state workforce directly affected Indirectly affected (thousands) Share of state workforce indirectly affected Total affected (thousands) Total share of state workforce affected State’s share of total affected nationally Change in total annual wages of state’s affected workers (2018$, thousands) Change in avg. annual earnings of state’s affected year-round affected workers (2018$) Real percent change in avg. annual earnings
National total 150,469 23,237 15.4% 10,222 6.8% 33,459 22.2% 100.0% $109,327,417 $3,300 13.3%
Alabama 2,016 565 28.0% 153 7.6% 717 35.6% 2.1% $2,880,374 $4,000 16.6%
Alaska 352 66 18.8% 19 5.4% 85 24.2% 0.3% $220,584 $2,600 9.2%
Arizona 3,020 149 4.9% 850 28.2% 999 33.1% 3.0% $830,454 $800 3.0%
Arkansas 1,246 360 28.9% 97 7.8% 457 36.7% 1.4% $1,017,352 $2,200 8.3%
California 19,073 5 0.0% 5 0.0% 9 0.0% 0.0% $15,863 $1,700 5.9%
Colorado 2,684 97 3.6% 621 23.1% 718 26.8% 2.1% $532,839 $700 2.7%
Connecticut 1,778 8 0.5% 44 2.5% 52 2.9% 0.2% $72,685 $1,400 5.1%
Delaware 436 102 23.5% 32 7.3% 134 30.8% 0.4% $438,661 $3,300 13.9%
District of Columbia 364 2 0.6% 9 2.3% 11 3.0% 0.0% $34,029 $3,100 9.3%
Florida 8,969 2,397 26.7% 712 7.9% 3,109 34.7% 9.3% $10,803,265 $3,500 14.0%
Georgia 4,564 1,197 26.2% 333 7.3% 1,530 33.5% 4.6% $6,381,944 $4,200 17.4%
Hawaii 729 174 23.9% 51 7.0% 225 30.9% 0.7% $561,361 $2,500 9.7%
Idaho 712 194 27.3% 54 7.6% 248 34.9% 0.7% $1,001,496 $4,000 17.0%
Illinois 6,164 52 0.8% 167 2.7% 219 3.6% 0.7% $467,096 $2,100 8.1%
Indiana 3,026 776 25.6% 240 7.9% 1,016 33.6% 3.0% $3,618,793 $3,600 15.3%
Iowa 1,525 386 25.3% 105 6.9% 491 32.2% 1.5% $1,619,966 $3,300 14.5%
Kansas 1,381 329 23.8% 119 8.6% 447 32.4% 1.3% $1,490,682 $3,300 13.7%
Kentucky 1,860 513 27.6% 139 7.5% 652 35.1% 1.9% $2,781,378 $4,300 18.0%
Louisiana 1,993 557 27.9% 163 8.2% 720 36.1% 2.2% $3,271,408 $4,500 18.7%
Maine 616 32 5.1% 160 26.0% 192 31.1% 0.6% $176,685 $900 3.5%
Maryland 3,056 24 0.8% 87 2.8% 111 3.6% 0.3% $324,647 $2,900 10.6%
Massachusetts 3,470 25 0.7% 90 2.6% 115 3.3% 0.3% $263,292 $2,300 8.6%
Michigan 4,375 1,001 22.9% 356 8.1% 1,357 31.0% 4.1% $3,547,310 $2,600 11.0%
Minnesota 2,777 333 12.0% 97 3.5% 430 15.5% 1.3% $733,545 $1,700 7.6%
Mississippi 1,204 378 31.4% 100 8.3% 478 39.7% 1.4% $2,176,212 $4,600 18.7%
Missouri 2,762 636 23.0% 210 7.6% 846 30.6% 2.5% $1,336,602 $1,600 6.3%
Montana 457 123 26.9% 33 7.2% 156 34.1% 0.5% $421,124 $2,700 11.6%
Nebraska 951 203 21.4% 95 9.9% 298 31.3% 0.9% $721,848 $2,400 10.0%
Nevada 1,396 393 28.2% 146 10.4% 539 38.6% 1.6% $1,050,316 $1,900 7.0%
New Hampshire 678 116 17.1% 43 6.4% 159 23.5% 0.5% $460,966 $2,900 13.3%
New Jersey 4,439 15 0.3% 139 3.1% 154 3.5% 0.5% $336,402 $2,200 7.7%
New Mexico 940 264 28.0% 88 9.3% 351 37.4% 1.0% $777,868 $2,200 8.5%
New York 9,535 135 1.4% 966 10.1% 1,101 11.5% 3.3% $902,245 $800 3.0%
North Carolina 4,496 1,192 26.5% 308 6.8% 1,500 33.4% 4.5% $6,204,993 $4,100 17.3%
North Dakota 380 72 19.0% 27 7.2% 100 26.2% 0.3% $299,781 $3,000 12.7%
Ohio 5,309 1,365 25.7% 370 7.0% 1,735 32.7% 5.2% $5,476,859 $3,200 13.4%
Oklahoma 1,724 427 24.8% 135 7.9% 563 32.6% 1.7% $2,355,164 $4,200 17.1%
Oregon 1,824 19 1.1% 270 14.8% 289 15.9% 0.9% $147,427 $500 1.8%
Pennsylvania 5,920 1,391 23.5% 449 7.6% 1,840 31.1% 5.5% $6,840,333 $3,700 16.4%
Rhode Island 518 87 16.8% 44 8.5% 131 25.3% 0.4% $278,357 $2,100 8.9%
South Carolina 2,140 502 23.5% 182 8.5% 684 32.0% 2.0% $2,772,993 $4,100 16.9%
South Dakota 414 98 23.6% 35 8.5% 133 32.0% 0.4% $323,404 $2,400 9.8%
Tennessee 2,933 766 26.1% 243 8.3% 1,009 34.4% 3.0% $3,949,924 $3,900 15.9%
Texas 13,345 3,543 26.6% 996 7.5% 4,539 34.0% 13.6% $19,553,032 $4,300 17.5%
Utah 1,369 354 25.8% 99 7.2% 453 33.1% 1.4% $1,451,431 $3,200 14.4%
Vermont 301 58 19.2% 22 7.4% 80 26.6% 0.2% $109,636 $1,400 5.4%
Virginia 4,058 863 21.3% 263 6.5% 1,126 27.7% 3.4% $4,261,538 $3,800 15.9%
Washington 3,360 3 0.1% 3 0.1% 6 0.2% 0.0% $10,222 $1,800 6.6%
West Virginia 717 185 25.8% 51 7.1% 236 32.9% 0.7% $784,426 $3,300 13.7%
Wisconsin 2,834 643 22.7% 186 6.6% 829 29.2% 2.5% $2,920,966 $3,500 16.2%
Wyoming 279 63 22.6% 19 6.7% 82 29.4% 0.2% $317,643 $3,900 16.2%

Notes: Values reflect the result of the proposed change in the federal minimum wage. Wage changes resulting from scheduled state and local minimum wage laws are accounted for by EPI’s Minimum Wage Simulation Model. Totals may not sum due to rounding. Shares calculated from unrounded values. Directly affected workers would see their wages rise as the new minimum wage rate will exceed their current hourly pay. Indirectly affected workers have a wage rate just above the new minimum wage (between the new minimum wage and 115 percent of the new minimum). They would receive a raise as employer pay scales are adjusted upward to reflect the new minimum wage.

Source:?Economic Policy Institute Minimum Wage Simulation Model using data from the Census Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Congressional Budget Office. See David Cooper, Zane Mokhiber, and Ben Zipperer, Minimum Wage Simulation Model Technical Methodology, February 2019. Dollar values adjusted by projections for CPI-U in CBO 2019.

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